MESMER: spatially resolved Earth System Model emulations

MESMER: spatially resolved Earth System Model emulations#

MESMER is a Modular Earth System Model Emulator with spatially Resolved output, which stochastically creates Earth System Model-specific spatio-temporally correlated climate variable field realizations at a negligible computational cost.

In combination with a global mean temperature emulator, MESMER can account for all three major sources of climate change projection uncertainty at the local scale: (i) internal variability uncertainty, i.e., unforced natural climate variability; (ii) forced climate response uncertainty, i.e., the Earth’s system response to forced natural changes (solar and volcanic) and human influences (greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions, land use changes etc.); and (iii) emission uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty in the emission pathway humans decide to follow. An interface between MESMER and global mean temperature emulators can be found at MESMER-group/mesmer-openscmrunner.

MESMER is under active development both scientifically and technically. Future work will increase its user friendliness and extend its emulation capabilities to include additional emulation methods and target climate variables.

Citing MESMER#

Scientific publications using MESMER should cite the following publication:

Beusch, L., Gudmundsson, L., and Seneviratne, S. I.: Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land, Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 139–159,, 2020.

If MESMER is used to emulate multiple emission pathways and/or in combination with a global mean emulator, the following publication should additionally be cited:

Beusch, L., Nicholls, Z., Gudmundsson, L., Hauser, M., Meinshausen, M., and Seneviratne, S. I.: From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3), Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 2085–2103,, 2022.


Copyright (c) 2021 ETH Zurich, MESMER contributors listed in AUTHORS.

MESMER is free software; you can redistribute it and/or modify it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by the Free Software Foundation, version 3 or (at your option) any later version.

MESMER is distributed in the hope that it will be useful, but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the GNU General Public License for more details.

You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License along with MESMER. If not, see

The full list of code contributors can be found in AUTHORS or on